After months of delays, OPEC+ is finally going through with its plan to bring back halted oil production. Starting in April, the group, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, will add 138,000 barrels per day, aiming to restore a total of 2.2 million barrels by 2026. The move comes as President Donald Trump keeps pushing for lower oil prices.
Oil prices take a hit
The market wasn’t expecting this—Brent crude dropped 2.8% to a three-month low after the news broke. Many thought OPEC+ would hold off again since oil prices are already too low for some members to balance their budgets. The group says it could slow or stop the increase if needed, but for now, the extra supply is dragging prices down.
Politics playing a role
This isn’t just about supply and demand. Trump has been vocal about wanting cheaper oil, and Saudi Arabia is looking to strengthen ties with the U.S. by pledging a massive $600 billion investment. Meanwhile, Russia—facing new sanctions—may see an opportunity to export more oil under Trump’s administration.
What’s next for oil?
Even before this decision, global oil markets were looking oversupplied, with countries like the U.S., Brazil, and Canada pumping more. The International Energy Agency predicts a surplus of 450,000 barrels per day this year. With OPEC+ now adding even more, oil prices could stay under pressure for a while.